New Policy Benefit Loss Effects per Tract

Distributions of COVID and SNAP Benefits at Income Levels

We see the distributions of households at the three income levels shown above, with a mean monthly average COVID SNAP benefit of ~$353 for households making fewer than 60,000 dollars a year.


We see the distributions of households at the three income levels shown above, with a mean monthly average SNAP benefit of ~$237 for households making fewer than 60,000 dollars a year after the policy change.


Distributions of COVID-SNAP Changes at Income Levels

Box plot

SNAP Eligibility vs SNAP Loss at Household and Person Levels (Less than $60,000)

When we consider only the income categories that are impacted by the new policy change that removes COVID SNAP guidelines, we graph the overall impact on each Fairfax census tract for households that make less than $60,000 a year. Each of these points represents a census tract, and each statistic shown at a point is the mean of the statistics for each of the three lowest income levels, weighted against the number of households they represent.

Based on the above graph, we need to examine the tracts that lose the most monthly SNAP benefit as a result of the new policy, as well as which tracts are the most eligible for SNAP in the first place. The COVID policy affects the range of benefit given but does not greatly impact the eligibility requirements for SNAP, which is why the eligibility proportion does not change as a result of the new policy.

Tracts with Greatest Monthly Benefit Losses per Household
For Income under $60,000 a year
NAME Household Eligibility Proportion Monthly Benefit Loss Households Represented Average Household Size Proportion Income Lost per Household
Census Tract 4405.03, Fairfax County, Virginia 0.659 262.817 149 2.570 0.074
Census Tract 4607.01, Fairfax County, Virginia 0.649 223.769 162 2.743 0.070
Census Tract 4619.02, Fairfax County, Virginia 0.735 216.733 231 3.195 0.071
Census Tract 4901.04, Fairfax County, Virginia 0.721 207.176 252 3.489 0.058
Census Tract 4911.01, Fairfax County, Virginia 0.683 200.397 95 2.780 0.063
Tracts with Highest Proportions of SNAP Eligible Households
For Income under $60,000 a year
NAME Household Eligibility Proportion Monthly Benefit Loss Households Represented Average Household Size Proportion Income Lost per Household
Census Tract 4803.01, Fairfax County, Virginia 1.000 152.520 32 2.075 0.086
Census Tract 4822.06, Fairfax County, Virginia 0.960 116.256 236 1.420 0.069
Census Tract 4616.04, Fairfax County, Virginia 0.898 119.369 126 2.460 0.059
Census Tract 4701, Fairfax County, Virginia 0.894 135.318 43 1.603 0.067
Census Tract 4521.01, Fairfax County, Virginia 0.883 122.490 337 2.565 0.057

We also need to examine the impact of the new policy that reduces benefit on the tracts after considering differing average household sizes per tract. As a result, we look at the most impacted tract by monthly SNAP benefit lost and by eligibility proportion, but this time on a per-person instead of a per-household basis.

Tracts with Greatest Monthly Benefit Losses per Person
For Income under $60,000 a year
NAME Household Eligibility Proportion Monthly Benefit Loss People Represented Proportion Income Lost per Person
Census Tract 4405.03, Fairfax County, Virginia 0.659 102.263 382.89 0.074
Census Tract 4701, Fairfax County, Virginia 0.894 84.415 68.94 0.067
Census Tract 4706, Fairfax County, Virginia 0.789 83.063 350.53 0.055
Census Tract 4822.06, Fairfax County, Virginia 0.960 81.870 335.07 0.069
Census Tract 4607.01, Fairfax County, Virginia 0.649 81.578 444.31 0.070
Tracts with Highest Proportions of SNAP Eligible Households
For Income under $60,000 a year
NAME Household Eligibility Proportion Monthly Benefit Loss People Represented Proportion Income Lost per Person
Census Tract 4803.01, Fairfax County, Virginia 1.000 73.504 66.39 0.086
Census Tract 4822.06, Fairfax County, Virginia 0.960 81.870 335.07 0.069
Census Tract 4616.04, Fairfax County, Virginia 0.898 48.524 310.01 0.059
Census Tract 4701, Fairfax County, Virginia 0.894 84.415 68.94 0.067
Census Tract 4521.01, Fairfax County, Virginia 0.883 47.754 864.38 0.057